Will a new convention centre hotel kill the Halifax hotel market?

Save the View group makes compelling argument

Say what you will about the Save the View group, which was formed in opposition to the proposed convention centre in Halifax, but there's no denying that they are dogged, and determined to bring real analysis to figures that are seemingly randomly generated by Trade Centre Limited and other pro-convention centre groups.

Today, Save the View sent me their analysis of the local hotel industry and how that would be affected by the addition of 500 more hotel rooms at the convention centre. Their conclusion for the best case scenario:

Even the wildly optimistic estimates cited in the in-house Trade Centre Limited Staff Report (2010) of an average of 18,310 national, 9,145 international and 15,900 national corporate delegates a year4, or just over five times the current number of convention delegates, the total room night absorption would still be only 104,000 of the new rooms; leaving over 75,000 room nights to be absorbed by non-convention delegates.
I should stress that many local hotels are on record as supporting the convention centre. I'm forwarding this to the hotel lobbying group, and will give them time to react to it; if they desire, I'll be happy to post their response.

For myself, I think STV has made an interesting case. You can read their entire analysis here.

I realize that many people will reject these arguments simply because they come from Save the View, but it'd be encouraging if the substance of the arguments could be debated.

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